Thursday 2 February 2017 11:22, UK
Chelsea will put one hand on the Premier League trophy and leave Arsenal scrapping for a top-four place if they win on Saturday, Danny Mills has told Premier League Daily.
Antonio Conte's side go into this weekend's derby, live on Sky Sports, with a nine-point lead at the top despite failing to beat Liverpool in midweek.
Defeat for Arsenal would leave them 12 points adrift on the back of Watford's shock win at the Emirates and, according to Mills, would mean the title is "Chelsea's to lose".
"They could afford to lose three games," the former England right-back said. "At first look, a point at Liverpool looked disappointing, but with other results it became a good point.
"Chelsea are in great form, keeping Diego Costa was fantastic. If they win this, the title is theirs to lose and Arsenal will be fighting to get in the top four."
It was the nature of Chelsea's 3-0 defeat at Arsenal in September that prompted Conte to switch to his preferred three-man defence.
The Blues immediately went on a 13-match winning run in the league, and the manager has challenged his players to make up for their Emirates embarrassment this weekend.
But Mills says the nature of Conte's system means there are areas to exploit if Arsenal are prepared to be bold at Stamford Bridge.
"Arsenal have to be brave," he said. "Chelsea have done magnificently well with this system, but if I was Wenger I'd play three up top, very high, and give them a problem. Force them back, make the wing-backs drop back so it almost ends up as a five at the back.
"The system works for them, but the weakness in any back three is the area down the side.
"Gary Cahill is a fantastic defender, but he's not the most mobile anymore. If you can isolate him one-on-one he won't have the protection from wide areas.
"Effectively, you might have Theo Walcott up against Cesar Azpilicueta, Alexis Sanchez up against David Luiz and another threat on the right. Suddenly you start to cause Chelsea problems."
The high stakes demand a risky approach from Arsene Wenger, according to Mills, who said: "If they don't win this game their title hopes are definitely over."