Sunday 12 February 2017 08:05, UK
Burnley have won their last five home games in the Premier League and Danny Higginbotham feels they cannot be underestimated by Chelsea at Turf Moor.
In fact, the Sky Sports tactics expert believes Sean Dyche's side could even cause an upset against the Premier League's runaway leaders.
"I'm really looking forward to this game," says Higginbotham. "I think it's going to be a real test for Chelsea. They have got the physicality at the back to deal with the balls being put into the box but I think Burnley will run them really close and I wouldn't be surprised to see a shock in this game given Burnley's home form."
While Burnley's home form has been spectacular this season, they have picked up only one point on their travels. Although Dyche favours 4-4-2 home and away, it is the way that Burnley play those formations that helps to explain the dramatic difference in results.
"When Burnley are away they play very deep so the problem is that the two strikers become very isolated," adds Higginbotham. "There's a big gap between the midfield and forwards for them to get up in support. So more often than not the ball keeps coming back.
"One of the interesting things with Burnley is the possession stats. Out of the 10 lowest possessions they have had this season, seven of them have come at home. That's because when the forwards become isolated it is very difficult for them to play the long ball.
"They end up having to play out from the back. They end up losing the ball a lot of the time in their own half and the opposition then have the opportunity to take advantage. Whereas if we look at how they go about things when they are at home, they are on the front foot.
"So because Burnley are on the front foot at home their possession is less because they're not having to play in their own half. They know how they want to go about things. Because they're on the front foot, they're getting the ball forward quicker and winning second balls."
Ashley Barnes has scored two goals away from home but Andre Gray has found the net only once away from Turf Moor compared to five times in front of his own fans. For Higginbotham, the key is the amount of support that the strikers are getting from midfield.
"Because Burnley are on the front foot it means that the likes of Scott Arfield will come in narrow and there are players such as Ashley Westwood and Joey Barton, depending who it is, and George Boyd as well," he says. "Even the full-backs and centre-halves will get up the pitch."
Higginbotham continues: "Obviously Jeff Hendrick is missing from this game as he is suspended but you've actually seen Hendrick getting beyond the front two and for me that's why Burnley have been so strong at home.
"It's not necessarily how they set up because the two setups are very similar but it's the simple fact that at home they take the game to the opposition. Away from home the onus is on the opposition, they are sitting back and the front two are getting isolated."